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Commercial Insurance Rate Barometer
Data through 2026Q2. Forecasts for 2026Q3 and 2026Q4.
Where commercial property, general liability, and umbrella and excess renewal rates are headed next quarter, forecast from the catastrophe, construction, legal, and claims data that move pricing.
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By Dan Wentz, commercial lines risk consultant at a large national insurance agency.
Property
Show data
| Quarter | CIAB renewal change |
|---|---|
| 2019Q1 | +5.9% |
| 2019Q2 | +8.5% |
| 2019Q3 | +8.8% |
| 2019Q4 | +9.7% |
| 2020Q1 | +12.0% |
| 2020Q2 | +13.3% |
| 2020Q3 | +14.2% |
| 2020Q4 | +12.9% |
| 2021Q1 | +12.0% |
| 2021Q2 | +9.9% |
| 2021Q3 | +10.3% |
| 2021Q4 | +10.5% |
| 2022Q1 | +8.6% |
| 2022Q2 | +8.3% |
| 2022Q3 | +11.2% |
| 2022Q4 | +16.0% |
| 2023Q1 | +20.4% |
| 2023Q2 | +18.3% |
| 2023Q3 | +17.1% |
| 2023Q4 | +11.8% |
| 2024Q1 | +10.1% |
| 2024Q2 | +8.9% |
| 2024Q3 | +7.9% |
| 2024Q4 | +6.0% |
| 2025Q1 | +2.9% |
| 2025Q2 | +1.9% |
| 2025Q3 | -0.2% |
| 2025Q4 | -0.7% |
| 2026Q1 | -5.5% |
| 2026Q2 | -6.3% |
| 2026Q3 (forecast) | -7.4% (-11% to -4%) |
| 2026Q4 (forecast) | -7.7% (-13% to -2%) |
What's pushing it
| Driver | Latest | A year earlier | Trend | Push on rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cat bond spread over expected loss Artemis quarterly ILS reports, Plenum Investments | 3.74% | 4.93% | ||
| Insured cat losses vs 10-year average Munich Re NatCatSERVICE (H1 and full-year releases) | 1% | 49% | ||
| E&S premium growth, YoY WSIA 15-state stamping office reports | 8.0% | 12.1% | ||
| U.S. hail and tornado reports, YoY NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database | -22% | -13% | ||
| Construction input prices, YoY BLS PPI via FRED | 7.3% | 1.6% |
Cat bond spread over expected loss
Artemis quarterly ILS reports, Plenum Investments
Insured cat losses vs 10-year average
Munich Re NatCatSERVICE (H1 and full-year releases)
E&S premium growth, YoY
WSIA 15-state stamping office reports
U.S. hail and tornado reports, YoY
NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database
Construction input prices, YoY
BLS PPI via FRED
How this works
Each driver is scored against its own history since 2019, weighted by line, and combined into a pressure index. Next quarter's CIAB renewal rate change is estimated from that index and the current quarter's CIAB rate; ranges are 80% intervals.
Sources: CIAB Commercial P&C Market Survey, Artemis, Munich Re NatCatSERVICE, NOAA Storm Events, WSIA stamping offices, BLS via FRED, Marathon Strategies, and The Hartford and CNA SEC filings.
These forecasts are a statistical estimate from historical market data, not a quote, rate indication, or coverage recommendation. Actual renewal outcomes depend on your own loss history, exposures, and underwriting, and can differ from the market-wide trend shown here.